For more than 30 years, we lived in a world where defense budgets were reasonably small, at least in EU countries. Suddenly, the war in Ukraine shows us an increased risk of insecurity and an immediate need to invest in defense. Certainly, the national budgets will change very soon their structure by reserving a greater share of military spending and possible cuts in allocations for health, education and climate change.
Until yesterday, the geopolitical analysis shows a drastic reduction in the number and amplitude of the military conflicts, generated mainly by the proven inefficiency of the war. It is more expensive to occupy a country and keep it under occupation than to use its resources using economic and the market tools. But the current conflict in Ukraine seems to violate the rationality of such arguments…
From the energy supply point of view, the crisis caused by this conflict brings us in a sensitive position of dependence on the Russian gas and oil. Many of the EU countries are now confronting with this difficulty. It is also a consequence of the current energy policies. The abandonment of coal-fired power plants and the tendency to shut down nuclear power plants without a realistic energy solution has increased this dependence. The increasing of the share of variable renewable without a realistic solution for the energy storage determined the need for many peak units based on gas. A detailed understanding of the context is a crucial step to create the future decisions. The acceleration of the climate actions is a hope for a coordinated and efficient response. There is a stringent need for a stable energy security approach to mark the end of the oil and gas era, along with the obsoleted coal.
An important effect can appear at the level of the decision by a possible division of the opinions regarding the urgency level for the introduction of the green economy, with a shift of climate actions to a secondary or to a marginal position. Somebody may say Europe is facing a much more acute crisis, it has to deal with military difficulties, with the destruction of a vast territory, and with the crisis of a new wave of migrants. On the other hand, this conflict can give rise to a technological race for domination, for example the increasing involvement of disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in geostrategic positioning and in conflicts.
Beyond all this, the hope of ending this conflict in a short time remains our main hope. In this context, we hope more and more, toward an end of the culture of war in the current thinking. War can no longer bring reasonable benefits by comparing it to what offers a stable peace, able to build and focus on global vital issues.
The core values of our world are freedom, democracy and cooperation. On these foundations we can build a sustainable future, including the urgency of climate change actions and the need for a dedicated education.